FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2022, GEOPOLITICAL FACTORS HAVE CEASED TO BE ONE OF THE KEY CHALLENGES FOR RUSSIAN BUSINESS

For the first time since 2022, geopolitical factors have ceased to be one of the key challenges for Russian business. The Roscongress Foundation, together with the consulting company Yakov & Partners, the all-Russian public organizations Delovaya Rossiya and the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, prepared a research report on the impact of geopolitical challenges on the foreign economic activities of companies specifically for the 28th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF 2025).

More than half of Russian businessmen noted that the situation in their company has remained the same or improved over the past six months (66%), and the share of managers expecting an even better future for their business reached a record 58%.

However, the share of respondents who noted a deterioration in the situation increased sharply – to 34% – which exceeds even the figures for 2022. For comparison, in 2024, only 16% of companies noted a deterioration. The decline in optimism is observed primarily in capital-intensive industries such as mining, heavy industry, oil and gas, chemicals, energy and transport. On the contrary, companies in the IT, retail and consumer goods, and medical and healthcare sectors feel more confident.

At the same time, 90% of business leaders are confident that the situation will improve or remain stable in the next half of the year, and optimism is steadily growing: 58% of companies already expect improvements (compared to 53% a year ago and 48% in December 2022).

The results of the study indicate that Russian business has adapted to the new foreign economic realities. Thus, the problem of foreign trade restrictions has lost its relevance: only 20% of managers consider it important. For comparison: in 2022, the figure was at 63%. In addition, the geopolitical tension factor has noticeably weakened – only 15% of respondents identified it as one of the key challenges.

However, the shortage of personnel continues to be a priority problem for Russian companies. The share of leaders who noted the shortage of labor among the main problems was 48%. The problem of the growth of the cost of capital against the background of the remaining high key rate came in second place.

Although the majority of companies (62%) are maintaining or even expanding their investment portfolio, 25% have suspended or slowed down some investment projects, and 13% have suspended everything they could. As expected, companies in the retail, consumer goods and financial sectors are more investment optimistic, while companies in capital-intensive industries are more pessimistic.

In these conditions, the key vectors of development for companies in the near future will be cost reduction, attracting and retaining employees, introducing new technologies, and increasing the output of products and services.