With the return of fighting between the United States and Iran, and the seeming collapse of any prospect of negotiations, the world has come again to the edge of the abyss. “We currently have no plans for negotiations and are focused on defense,” Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said July 15.
This was backed up by Deputy Foreign Minister Kazeem Gharibabadi, who declared “America not only violated the memorandum of understanding, but also dismantled it.” Now, both sides seem to be preparing for a new round of war—but can the world cope with the consequences?
Already battered by over three months of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, blocking almost 20% of the world’s fuel and over 25% of its fertilizer, the global economy and the populations who depend on it cannot survive another such prolonged crisis.
Now that traffic in the strait has again nearly ground to a halt, it has sparked fear among economists and analysts who warn that the world has almost no fuel stockpiles left to act as a cushion.
“We’ve burned through all of the buffers we had. Everything,” one trader told the Financial Times. And this is with a fully open Bab al-Mandeb Strait on the Red Sea, upon which the Gulf nations have been relying for a growing portion of their exports. Worries are multiplying that war might spread to this vital passageway next.
Not far away, the situation is becoming bleaker between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine’s increased strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have already impacted oil and gas exports, further straining global markets. But now these have expanded to include grain infrastructure and shipping on the Black Sea.
Russia and Ukraine are the first and fifth largest wheat exporters in the world, respectively, while Ukraine is also the fourth largest exporter of corn. As a result of the recent attacks, Russia’s grain exports have dropped by one quarter and Ukraine’s by one third. Commodities markets skyrocketed over July 14-15 in response, and oil prices are climbing as well.
It shouldn’t be hard to see that the human species is quickly hurtling toward a point of mass-death if these conflicts continue—and that’s not even including the potential meltdown of the bankrupt trans-Atlantic financial system. A new way must urgently be found. Luckily, the world is in a moment of profound upheaval and transformation, shifting the ground upon which today’s crises originated.
This was shown beyond a doubt in the massive upset vote in the U.S. House of Representatives on July 15 to deny all funding to Israel. While the amendment proposed by Rep. Thomas Massie was ultimately voted down, it garnered over 100 votes by Democrats who broke from their party’s leadership in rejection of the war madness that has dominated Western policy.
Reverberations are being felt around the world as the reality that a new policy for Southwest Asia is needed is even dawning on members of Congress
But defunding Israel is not a lasting solution to this crisis. Instead, as Oman’s Foreign Minister recently proposed, a new regional architecture for Southwest Asia is required—one that “will genuinely help the eight Gulf states achieve the security they need,” including Iran.
Such a new architecture “will require an honest appraisal of relationships with powerful friends and allies such as the United States. Not to discard these relationships… but perhaps to reset them to make them align better with the strategic reality the recent war has revealed.”
In speaking about this situation, worsening by the day with the advent of a new phase of the war, Schiller Institute founder Helga Zepp-LaRouche suggested that we take this proposal, along with a similar proposal made by former Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, and combine it with the Schiller Institute’s Oasis Plan proposal for the economic and industrial development of the whole region.
Combining the existing infrastructure networks of the Belt and Road Initiative, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and the North-South Transport Corridor, along with this region’s historic location as the crossroads of civilization, “could be the beginning of industrializing the whole area,” Zepp-LaRouche noted.
Mankind has reached a historic turning point: Will we succumb to the madness of war, currently erasing the means of human civilization? Or will we act on the spark of reason and establish a new order on its foundation? The future is not decided, so join the effort.
Be sure to join the July 17 meeting of the International Peace Coalition, where these topics will be taken up more fully.
