Ukraine’s ill-advised stoppage of the supply of Russian gas through its territory is aimed at harming the economy of Russia and the international standing of President Vladimir Putin. Against a chorus of appeal from several EU member-states for President Volodymyr Zelensky to rethink his controversial decision, Kiev is thus far showing no appetite for a mutually-beneficial resolution.
As matters stand, Ukraine is starring at the barrel of a gun with no evidence of positive move over a deal that Russia, the EU and the international community would rather see sealed without any further delay.
Kiev’s move will undoubtedly trigger a global spike in the price of gas, as I indicate later. On a grand scale, the move by Kiev that is aimed at punishing Russia would prove to be rather too short-sighted in a world that has become inter-connected and inter-dependent.
From the outset, let me nail my colours to the mast: Ukraine’s refusal to extend the gas deal signed with Russia some four years ago will bring-about detrimental repercussions for the Zelensky administration, which need the EU more at this juncture. Let me paraphrase my take on the issue: Ukraine is shooting itself in the foot! In Shakespearian English, I’d argue that Zelensky is “cutting his nose to spite his face”.
Now, looking at Ukraine’s ill-advised decision to no longer allow the Russian gas supply deal to the EU, Kiev stands to lose a whopping a 1 billion US dollars per annum. This much is indeed what Kiev’s economy needs at this dire moment of the war with Moscow.
The early limitless supply of material requirements to Kiev, including seemingly bottomless financial pit led by Washington and Brussels, is on the verge of ending. The US President-elect Donald Trump is set to assume office shortly, on January 25th, to be exact, and his views on the conflict are no secret.
Trump’s right-hand man and the new head of the Government Efficiency Division of the Trump’s second administration, Billionaire Elon Musk, has publicly indicated on his social media platform X that Zelensky will no longer enjoy preferential treatment he did under the outgoing Biden administration.
Additionally, the EU has invested way too much backing Ukraine since the conflict started in February 2022. Not only did the EU offer massive cash injection to Kiev, the bloc also offered strategic diplomatic cover and treated Zelensky like royalty as they created ample opportunities and offered podiums for the Ukrainian President to speak to the world.
Russia’s gas is comparatively inexpensive due to the availability of extra-ordinary supplies and reserves by Gazprom, Russia’s state oil company. The geographic proximity has also added to the lower purchase price of Russia’s gas. Many EU states depend on Russia’s cheap gas in the wake of their struggling economies. German is a good example. Now surely, surely, Zelensky would not be allowed to scupper a deal so good and convenient for the EU, a bloc that has done so much for Kiev?
Again, in my view, to refuse to extend the deal that favours the EU so much is tantamount to Kiev biting the hand that feeds Kiev. This is illogical, and I am struggling to find good reason as to why Zelensky would choose this suicidal path on the eve of the inauguration of President Trump.
I mean, the EU is itself trembling with trepidation at the looming spell of President Trump 2.0. Kiev is well aware about Washington’s soon-to-run-dry pot of honey that has galvanized Zelensky’s administration and his depleted army in the frontlines.
Methinks President Zelensky and his advisors have miscalculated in refusing to renew a deal simply so important to Europe’s economy and global food security.
Let me say this respectfully: President Zelensky is but a small cog in the bigger geopolitical scheme of things. I’ve said it before, and I repeat, that the Ukraine war is the West’s proxy war against Russia. This much the Kremlin has said many a time. We are in the grip of a new Cold War, and if Kiev takes unilateral decisions that are harmful to the EU, goodness me – that would signal the end of Europe’s hitherto unwavering support to Kiev in a conflict Trump has vowed to end on Day one of his 2nd term of office.
The signs are certainly looking somewhat ominous for Kiev’s decision to end the transit of Russian gas to the EU, which is effective from New Year’s Day 2025. For example, responding to the developments, the Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, described the move as “selfish national interest” and “nonsensical geopolitical goal”.
It is easy to understand why PM Fico was so livid. After all, a pipeline that runs through Ukraine has been providing Russian gas to Slovakia. If President Zelensky does not rescind his decision, Slovakia will “cut electricity supply to Ukraine”, warned PM Fico.
Across the EU, the impact of Kiev’s halting of the Russian gas supply can already be felt. The move has led to a surge in gas prices in Europe, reportedly reaching 50 Euros per megawatt hour for the very first time in over a year.
I will be dumb-founded if President Zelensky fails to acknowledge his miscalculation. It is not Russia that needs gas. Moscow has plenty in store. Making access to this vital commodity expensive or inaccessible will be Ukraine’s last straw that breaks the camel’s back, I promise. Watch this space.
