PHANTOM OF THE OPERA: THE ELUSIVE ISRAEL ELECTION RESULT

WEIGHING THE FUTURE: Israeli President Isaac Herzog

The votes have been counted. The consultations have been held. The numbers are on the table. And yet, Israel has no government.
Like the Phantom who haunts the opera house in Paris, the result is present everywhere and visible nowhere. We can hear its music. We cannot see its face. President Isaac Herzog now stands in the wings, holding the mask.

The Faustian Pact

Every student of literature knows the story. A man, desperate for power, for knowledge, for youth, signs a pact with the Devil. Christopher Marlowe gave us Doctor Faustus, who sold his soul for twenty-four years of pleasure. Johann Wolfgang von Goethe gave us Faust, who sold his soul for one perfect moment. The deal is always the same: You get what you want now. You pay for it later. Herzog has not signed in blood, but he is faced with a Faustian choice of his own. On paper, his job is simple. It is number crunching. 67 Members of Knesset recommended Gadi Eisenkot. 46 recommended Benjamin Netanyahu. 7 abstained. 67 is more than 61. 67 is the largest number of recommendations since 2015. On paper, the mandate should go to Eisenkot on Sunday. But in reality, Herzog is not counting numbers. He is counting souls.

The Jury Is Out

Behind the closed doors of the President’s Residence, Herzog must juggle conundrums that no arithmetic can solve. He must think of the Zionists, who see this election not as a contest for offices, but as a contest for the soul of the state. He must think of the orthodox rabbis, whose blessing can make a coalition holy, and whose curse can make it unclean.

He must think of the war hawks, for whom any government that talks of compromise is a government that has surrendered. He must think of Israel’s sponsors abroad, in Washington and in the capitals of Europe, who watch every move and count every shekel. And he must think of the mystical vision of a Greater Israel, that old, whispered dream that Israel is not just a state, but a promise, a prophecy, a destiny that cannot be divided. All the while, he must pretend that he has listened, that he has internalised what all the relevant parties had to say. He has nodded. He has taken notes. He has said, “The results appear clear.” But he has not acted. He has delayed until Sunday.
Why? Because he knows that to name Eisenkot is to bless a coalition of 67 that cannot sit in the same room: 48 Jewish-led anti-Netanyahu Members of the Knesset (MKs) who refuse to partner with 19 Arab-led MKs who also recommended Eisenkot. To name Netanyahu is to bless a man with only 46, who has lost even the recommendation of his own ally, United Torah Judaism (UTJ). Either way, someone will say he has sold his soul.

A Watershed Moment

This is why the world waits with bated breath. Based on what has just happened in the United States, where the midterm elections showed a people tired of endless war and endless division, this is a watershed moment for Israel.
America has spoken. Will Israel listen? The Phantom still sings. The opera is not over. The mask has not been lifted.
On Sunday, Herzog must step onto the stage, and decide which deal he is willing to sign.
The jury is out for him. And for all of us.

When a President delays, it is because history is watching him decide.



Dr Thele Moema

<p>Dr Thele Moema, an armament expert and Geopolitical analyst.</p>

Author

  • Dr Thele Moema, an armament expert and Geopolitical analyst.

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